There are just three matches left to play in the league stage of IPL 2022
now, but we are still not sure what the final complexion of the last four will look like.
As things stand, one team is sure to top the group stage, another is sure to finish either sole second or joint second and five are definitely out of the playoffs, leaving three teams contending for the remaining two slots. Here is how the teams stand as of Friday morning:1)
MI, CSK, KKR, SRH and PBKS are out of the reckoning for playoff spots, GT are guaranteed to finish first 2)
DC’s chances of making it to the top four slots on points have slipped to 50%. Their best case scenario is to win their last game against MI and RR losing its game against CSK. Even if RR wins against CSK, DC can tie for fourth with RCB and squeak through thanks to a better net run rate. If they lose to MI, however, they will be out of the race 3)
RCB’s chances of making it to one of the top four slots on points have jumped to 100% following Thursday’s win. But, interestingly, their chances of qualification for the playoffs remain slim. Their best case scenario is that RR and DC lose to CSK and MI respectively. That would leave it tied for third at 16 points with RR. If DC beats MI, it could turn into a three-way tie. Given RCB’s poor NRR, that would be bad news. Even if RR wins against CSK, if DC loses to MI, RCB can grab fourth spot without any tie. But if RR and DC both win their last games, the best RCB can do is joint fourth with DC, in which case it will probably lose out on NRR 4)
RR are certain to finish second or third on the points table. Their best-case scenario is to win against CSK. That would leave them in joint second spot on 18 points with LSG. But even if they lose to CSK, they can qualify through a two-way tie with RCB if MI beats DC. If they lose to CSK and DC beats MI, it would be a three-way tie for third spot where RR’s superior NRR should see them through 5)
LSG are guaranteed second spot either solely (if CSK beats RR) or tied with RR (if RR beats CSK)
How we calculate these probabilities:
We looked at all 8 current possible combinations of results with four matches remaining. We assumed that for any given match the chances of either side winning are even. We then looked at how many of the combinations put each team in one of the top four slots by points. That gives us our probability number. To take a specific example, of the 8 possible result combinations, DC finishes first to fourth on points in 4 combinations. That translates to a 50% chance. We do not take net run rates or “no results” into consideration because predicting those in advance is impossible.
Come back for our updated predictions Saturday (May 21) morning, which will take into account the result of Friday's match.